Trading ideas for the OneForex 10K Challenge

The OneForex 10 K Challenge has started and now everyone is searching for the best trades which will make him/her the contest winner.

Our Analysts Team has prepared this special report for you. In the next pages we'll share with you our point of view for the market's movement during this week. This might give you some ideas on how to win the competition.

Fundamental point of view
The contest will last one week and one way to perform well is to use the news published this week about major countries. The biggest market participants will consider that news and will take action (open/close positions) on the expectation of what that news will be. As a good practice you must be on alert for every tweet from US President Donald Trump. Those could move the currencies pretty fast.

The current week is not very rich in economic news which will have strong impact on the market movements. Still there is some. You can find it listed below:
-

Day of the week

News event

Forecast

Previous

Wednesday, January 10

CN New Yuan Loans (DEC)

1000.0b

1120.0b

CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY) (DEC)

1.9%

1.7%

 

Thursday, January 11

ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

 

Friday, January 12

US Consumer Price Index (YoY) (DEC)

2.1%

2.2%

US Consumer Price Index Ex Food and Energy (YoY) (DEC)

1.7%

1.7%

US Retail Sales (MoM) (DEC)

0.4%

0.8%

 

As you can see most of the major news for this week will be released on Friday and it is for US economy. That news might bring movements in the corresponding currencies.

Technical point of view

From a technical point of view several currency pairs stand out. Lets take a look at some them:

EURUSD

We'll start with the most popular currency pair – the EURUSD. Seasonally speaking thorought the past years the European currency has constantly experienced weakness in the second week of a new year. Movements by the big market participants in the futures markets during the past week also suggest that this decline might happen.

On the chart you can see that the pair is in bull trend (very important) and last week it tried to break into new highs but this attempt was a failure. After such a failure it is normal to see some correction before a new attack of the prior top (marked with a red vertical line). EURUSD was in the overbought zone of the Williams % range indicator and now its getting out of it. This shows a possible sell signal. One more thing which strengthens the idea of possible down move for EURUSD this week is the divergence which we see with Accumulation/Distribution indicator.

Currently this price is in a very tight trading range. Breaking this range to the down side (below 1.20) will be the actual trigger of the expected down move in the currency pair. The down movement might continue to the next support levels 1.1940 and 1.1790.

If this week the EURUSD actually breaks above the prior high (above 1.2092/ top from the 8th of September 2017) then it will be good to rethink the idea that the price will fall. Passing above that resistance will signal the possible resumption of the bull trend and for sure is not a place where to start selling.

USDCAD



The pair US Dollar versus Canadian Dollar usually shows seasonal strength during this time of the year. The pair fell really sharply during the last trading day of the previous week and was actually able to break below the important support level around 1.2430. But there seem to be a problem with that breakout. If you take a look at the chart (orange lines) you'll see that the price is diverging with one the indicators below – the On Balance Volume indicator. While the USDCAD fell pretty low the indicator held ground and didn't follow that down move This is bullish! The indicator Williams % Range indicates that we are now in the oversold area and about to leave it. This is also a bullish signal.

Here, because of the large range day on Friday, the strategy is a little bit different. On Monday we expect the price to move up and form an inside bar. Then attack the high of the large range Friday around 1.2512. If this level is broken the price might go to the next resistance levels 1.2660 and the last significant top at 1.2900.

If after the inside bar the price fails to break 1.2512 and forms a short term high we can assume that the down move may continue.

The OneForex Team


Risk Disclaimer.
This article illustrates the view of its authors and should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. It is especially designed for educational purposes for the demo contest OneForex 10K Challenge. Currency trading involves risk. It might not be suitable for you. Before you start with Forex trading you will need a proper education.
 

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